NAR Existing Home Sales indicate that sales have decreased by 21% between 2006 and 2008. NAR Existing Home Sales 2006-08.
Per Seeking Alpha, US Census Bureau, Home sales fall. New home sales in January fell 10.2% to 309,000 from December, short of the expected 330,000. Dec. was revised to 344,000 from 331,000. Median price was $201,100. At the current sales rate, there's 13.3 months of supply.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Friday, February 27, 2009
U.S. Nuclear Energy
Article and comments on nuclear energy generation
Moment of Truth for U.S. Nuclear Energy by Greentech Media
By Eric Wesoff
Greentech Media, as the name suggests, focuses on renewable energy and a green sustainable future. There is contention in the green culture at large and in the Greentech Media offices as to whether nuclear can be categorized as truly “green.” (See the comment thread in this blog piece to witness contention amongst our readers.) Nuclear plants do not produce greenhouse gases but they definitely present a radioactive material and security risk. And uranium is certainly not a renewable resource.
But the bottom line is - nuclear power is part of the energy mix in the US and around the world and the nuclear waste produced is not going anywhere. 438 nuclear plants are operating today, more are being built, and the issue has to be dealt with.
Ariel Levite, the former Principal Deputy Director General for Policy at the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, spoke today at a talk sponsored by Stanford’s CISAC, the Center for International Security and Cooperation.
His talk addressed nuclear power and avoided nuclear weaponry and non-proliferation (another facet of CISAC’s studies).
Once at the forefront of the nuclear industry but now haunted by the legacy of Three Mile Island, the United States has fallen behind in nuclear science, engineering, and industry. Hamstrung by tight financing , a dismal record on meeting budget and schedule, a NIMBY mindset, and a timid political class - the US has been ambivalent about nuclear power’s comeback.
Despite having 108 nuclear plants in operation. 108.
But the rest of the world is hardly ambivalent about nuclear. And the US is no longer the role model.
Europe, specifically France, now sets the pace for nuclear power with 80% of their power produced from nukes in a closed fuel cycle process. China, Russia, Korea, India, and Japan have all entered what Mr. Levite referred to as, “a nuclear power reactor race,” and more than 50 countries are considering launching nuclear power programs. According to Levite, “There is real hype but real action might soon follow.” The installed base of nuclear power “might increase by a factor of 3-5 by 2050.” According to Levite - China has 11 plants under construction, and Russia, 8. He noted the recent Swedish decision to re-embark on an ambitious nuclear program after two decades of phasing out nukes, as well as nuclear power activity in Poland and the Baltic countries.
Some bullet points from his talk:
Factors driving this new nuclear zeal…
Growing global energy demand
Energy security concerns - in the aftermath of the most recent crisis, Europeans feel that they cannot rely on rationed gas from Russia
Potentially substituting nuclear domestically to allow oil and gas exports
Is there any way to meet carbon emission requirements without nuclear power?
Enhancing nuclear’s appeal…
Western nuclear power and, to a lesser exent, Russian nuclear power has been proven reliable
Better and bigger reactor designs
There are only 7 major utilities operating nuclear power in the US - in this case consolidation is good
Government incentives for low carbon emissions
Potential for standardization
But…
Industrial bottlenecks are serious. This is an industry that has built only 4 reactors a year for the last few years.
There is a shortage of nuclear engineers
Reliable construction cost calculations are less than reliable
Utilities lack efficient and affordable mechanisms for funding new nuclear construction
Carbon emission subsidies are not clearly defined
A sophisticated waste disposal challenge lingers on
A NIMBY attitude affects selection of new sites
Prospects for trouble abroad are significant
If one nuclear reactor goes wrong, if one entity uses nukes irresponsibly - the entire industry will suffer
If the US is to re-enter this market, time is of the essence because it takes 3-4 years to license and 7-10 years to build a reactor. And all of the US’s reactors are 25+ years old and exceeding their expected lifetime.
Regarding the US response to the nuclear waste issue, Levite said, “The US has the least intelligent solution - spending billions on interim storage.” The question of storing nuclear waste is still in front of the US, “The US has to deal with the issue of nuclear waste regardless of whether they build any more reactors,” and saying that, “Yucca Mountain ain’t going to work,” because of politics and sheer capacity.
I am a knee-jerk environmentalist and have a visceral response to the word “nuclear.” But the more I learn and read, the more experts I speak with, the more my mind is changed - nuclear is a necessary part of the energy mix albeit with enormous risk.
These risks need to be confronted head-on by sound technology, policy, diplomacy, and science.
But as for floating Russian nuclear plants: Not a good idea.
Moment of Truth for U.S. Nuclear Energy by Greentech Media
By Eric Wesoff
Greentech Media, as the name suggests, focuses on renewable energy and a green sustainable future. There is contention in the green culture at large and in the Greentech Media offices as to whether nuclear can be categorized as truly “green.” (See the comment thread in this blog piece to witness contention amongst our readers.) Nuclear plants do not produce greenhouse gases but they definitely present a radioactive material and security risk. And uranium is certainly not a renewable resource.
But the bottom line is - nuclear power is part of the energy mix in the US and around the world and the nuclear waste produced is not going anywhere. 438 nuclear plants are operating today, more are being built, and the issue has to be dealt with.
Ariel Levite, the former Principal Deputy Director General for Policy at the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, spoke today at a talk sponsored by Stanford’s CISAC, the Center for International Security and Cooperation.
His talk addressed nuclear power and avoided nuclear weaponry and non-proliferation (another facet of CISAC’s studies).
Once at the forefront of the nuclear industry but now haunted by the legacy of Three Mile Island, the United States has fallen behind in nuclear science, engineering, and industry. Hamstrung by tight financing , a dismal record on meeting budget and schedule, a NIMBY mindset, and a timid political class - the US has been ambivalent about nuclear power’s comeback.
Despite having 108 nuclear plants in operation. 108.
But the rest of the world is hardly ambivalent about nuclear. And the US is no longer the role model.
Europe, specifically France, now sets the pace for nuclear power with 80% of their power produced from nukes in a closed fuel cycle process. China, Russia, Korea, India, and Japan have all entered what Mr. Levite referred to as, “a nuclear power reactor race,” and more than 50 countries are considering launching nuclear power programs. According to Levite, “There is real hype but real action might soon follow.” The installed base of nuclear power “might increase by a factor of 3-5 by 2050.” According to Levite - China has 11 plants under construction, and Russia, 8. He noted the recent Swedish decision to re-embark on an ambitious nuclear program after two decades of phasing out nukes, as well as nuclear power activity in Poland and the Baltic countries.
Some bullet points from his talk:
Factors driving this new nuclear zeal…
Growing global energy demand
Energy security concerns - in the aftermath of the most recent crisis, Europeans feel that they cannot rely on rationed gas from Russia
Potentially substituting nuclear domestically to allow oil and gas exports
Is there any way to meet carbon emission requirements without nuclear power?
Enhancing nuclear’s appeal…
Western nuclear power and, to a lesser exent, Russian nuclear power has been proven reliable
Better and bigger reactor designs
There are only 7 major utilities operating nuclear power in the US - in this case consolidation is good
Government incentives for low carbon emissions
Potential for standardization
But…
Industrial bottlenecks are serious. This is an industry that has built only 4 reactors a year for the last few years.
There is a shortage of nuclear engineers
Reliable construction cost calculations are less than reliable
Utilities lack efficient and affordable mechanisms for funding new nuclear construction
Carbon emission subsidies are not clearly defined
A sophisticated waste disposal challenge lingers on
A NIMBY attitude affects selection of new sites
Prospects for trouble abroad are significant
If one nuclear reactor goes wrong, if one entity uses nukes irresponsibly - the entire industry will suffer
If the US is to re-enter this market, time is of the essence because it takes 3-4 years to license and 7-10 years to build a reactor. And all of the US’s reactors are 25+ years old and exceeding their expected lifetime.
Regarding the US response to the nuclear waste issue, Levite said, “The US has the least intelligent solution - spending billions on interim storage.” The question of storing nuclear waste is still in front of the US, “The US has to deal with the issue of nuclear waste regardless of whether they build any more reactors,” and saying that, “Yucca Mountain ain’t going to work,” because of politics and sheer capacity.
I am a knee-jerk environmentalist and have a visceral response to the word “nuclear.” But the more I learn and read, the more experts I speak with, the more my mind is changed - nuclear is a necessary part of the energy mix albeit with enormous risk.
These risks need to be confronted head-on by sound technology, policy, diplomacy, and science.
But as for floating Russian nuclear plants: Not a good idea.
Carle - Your Chief Adversary
Erica CarleFebruary 20, 2009NewsWithViews.com
After watching the quick approval of the so-called stimulus package it ought to be obvious to any thinking person that our so-called legislators, do not legislate. They do not even read proposed legislation before casting their votes.
Someone other than the legislators writes the legislation. Someone other than the senators and representatives decides what must be approved and what must be rejected. The so-called legislators merely put their unthinking sanction on packages they are told to approve. There is no need for them to read the legislation because they are not expected to think about what they are doing. They are not even expected to represent the thinking of voters in their states. There is no sense denying this fact because that is the way it IS. And IS means IS.
This impotence and robotization of legislative bodies was planned many years ago by none other than that crazy Frenchman, Auguste Comte. He made it perfectly clear in his Positive Philosophy that in the future, thinking would no longer be necessary or desirable on the part of most individuals. He wrote:
Note: Communitarianism Interests of the community outweigh individual interests. Changing “Me” to “We”
The requisite convergence of the best minds cannot be obtained without voluntary renunciation on the part of most of them, of their sovereign right to free inquiry.
One of his followers, sociologist, Lester Ward explained the situation as far as legislation is concerned. In his 1906 book Applied Sociology he boasted:
It must not be supposed that such legislation can be conducted to any considerable extent in the open sessions of legislative bodies. These will doubtless need to be maintained, and every new law should be finally adopted by a vote of such bodies, but more and more this will become merely a formal way of putting the final sanction of society on decisions that have been carefully worked out in what may be called the sociological laboratory.
So I maintain there is NO ONE, DEAD OR ALIVE, who is more to blame for the ongoing destruction of the United States and the United States Constitution than that crazy Frenchman, Auguste Comte.
Tell me about Edward Bellamy and Looking Backward; Madam Blavatsky, Annie Besant and the Theosophical Society; Theodore Herzl and the Zionists; John Dewey and his influence on education; Andrew Carnegie, the Rockefellers, Thomas J. Watson, etc., etc. After being inspired and instructed, directly or indirectly, by Comte, all of them worked for their own versions of world government. All of them were important. All of them and many others played significant roles in the drive to destroy nations. But the crazy Frenchman out-flummoxed every one of them. He accomplished for the WORld Management System (WORMS) what no one else had accomplished.
He not only convinced millions to stop thinking independently, he gave them what they believed was moral justification for the abandonment of self and personality. He did this by coining the word “otherism.” Otherism gave the WORMS promoters a feeling of virtue for the worship of Comte’s new goddess, Humanity. By claiming their motives come from otherism, the nation destroyers allowed themselves to believe they are not evil, not traitorous, not greedy, not naïve, not stupid. They are concerned -- totally concerned -- with the welfare of others. (otherism in French=altruism). The crazy Frenchman wrote:
The ultimate systematization of human life must consist above all in the development of otherism.
Man’s peaceful activity must become, not merely collective, but distinctly otheristic in character.
No matter what aspect of the ongoing destruction you are trying to prevent, this is one of the most important reasons why the crazy Frenchman is your chief adversary. Comte gave WORMS promoters a feeling of moral justification for the destruction of personality, and the destruction of nations that respect personality.
The WORMS desperately needed this feeling of justification, but they also needed something else -- a method. The crazy Frenchman also gave them that method. With just five words that he credited to Louis Napoleon, the simple plan of action was created.
TO DESTROY, YOU MUST REPLACE
Note: Communitarianism Interests of the community outweigh individual interests. Changing “Me” to “We”
Here is how it works:
To destroy Christianity he replaced it with the Great Being, the Goddess Humanity.
Note: Environmentalism replaces religion.To destroy theology he replaced it with sociology.Note: Secularization of morality.
To destroy Christian charity he replaced it with otherism.Note: Homeland Security FEMA
To destroy nations he suggested replacing states with cities and the tracts of country, which freely adhere to them.
Note: UN Treaties NAFTA, CAFTA, NAUTo destroy personal affection, he replaced it with love of all humanity.
Note: Politically correct – Racism, womans rights, gay rights, anti-semitism (special interest groups)To destroy personal knowledge he replaced it with control of public opinion and education.
Note: Media Perception Managers – Education Behavior modificationTo destroy Truth he replaced it with approval for censoring the achievements of all scientists who did not support evolution and Positive Philosophy.
Note: False science of enviromentalists - Global Warming Renewable energy
The crazy Frenchman’s followers learned their lessons well:
To destroy Christian missions they replaced them with the Peace Corps.To destroy Christian morality they replaced it with choose-your-own morality.To destroy the states they are replacing them with regional government.To destroy local control of education they replaced it with international sociological control by the United Nations.
To destroy government answerable to the people they are replacing it with government by political and social “scientists.”
To destroy independent businesses they are replacing them with government stimulus for international corporations approved by the International Chamber of Commerce.
To destroy government answerable to the people they are replacing it with government answerable to the United Nations.
Now you get the idea. We could go on and on. If you wish, please send me your additions to the ever-growing number of examples of TO DESTROY YOU MUST REPLACE.
The Hate Factory - a primer on the goals and methods of the crazy Frenchman's sociology and how it is used in schools to corrupt the children.
© 2009 Erica Carle - All Rights Reserved
E-mail This Page
Sign Up For Free E-Mail AlertsE-Mails are used strictly for NWVs alerts, not for sale
Erica Carle is an independent researcher and writer. She has a B.S. degree from the University of Wisconsin. She has been involved in radio and television writing and production, and has also taught math and composition at the private school her children attended in Brookfield, Wisconsin. For ten years she wrote a weekly column, "Truth In Education" for WISCONSIN REPORT, and served as Education Editor for that publication.
THE HATE FACTORY- Again available.
E-mail: ericacarle@sbcglobal.net
After watching the quick approval of the so-called stimulus package it ought to be obvious to any thinking person that our so-called legislators, do not legislate. They do not even read proposed legislation before casting their votes.
Someone other than the legislators writes the legislation. Someone other than the senators and representatives decides what must be approved and what must be rejected. The so-called legislators merely put their unthinking sanction on packages they are told to approve. There is no need for them to read the legislation because they are not expected to think about what they are doing. They are not even expected to represent the thinking of voters in their states. There is no sense denying this fact because that is the way it IS. And IS means IS.
This impotence and robotization of legislative bodies was planned many years ago by none other than that crazy Frenchman, Auguste Comte. He made it perfectly clear in his Positive Philosophy that in the future, thinking would no longer be necessary or desirable on the part of most individuals. He wrote:
Note: Communitarianism Interests of the community outweigh individual interests. Changing “Me” to “We”
The requisite convergence of the best minds cannot be obtained without voluntary renunciation on the part of most of them, of their sovereign right to free inquiry.
One of his followers, sociologist, Lester Ward explained the situation as far as legislation is concerned. In his 1906 book Applied Sociology he boasted:
It must not be supposed that such legislation can be conducted to any considerable extent in the open sessions of legislative bodies. These will doubtless need to be maintained, and every new law should be finally adopted by a vote of such bodies, but more and more this will become merely a formal way of putting the final sanction of society on decisions that have been carefully worked out in what may be called the sociological laboratory.
So I maintain there is NO ONE, DEAD OR ALIVE, who is more to blame for the ongoing destruction of the United States and the United States Constitution than that crazy Frenchman, Auguste Comte.
Tell me about Edward Bellamy and Looking Backward; Madam Blavatsky, Annie Besant and the Theosophical Society; Theodore Herzl and the Zionists; John Dewey and his influence on education; Andrew Carnegie, the Rockefellers, Thomas J. Watson, etc., etc. After being inspired and instructed, directly or indirectly, by Comte, all of them worked for their own versions of world government. All of them were important. All of them and many others played significant roles in the drive to destroy nations. But the crazy Frenchman out-flummoxed every one of them. He accomplished for the WORld Management System (WORMS) what no one else had accomplished.
He not only convinced millions to stop thinking independently, he gave them what they believed was moral justification for the abandonment of self and personality. He did this by coining the word “otherism.” Otherism gave the WORMS promoters a feeling of virtue for the worship of Comte’s new goddess, Humanity. By claiming their motives come from otherism, the nation destroyers allowed themselves to believe they are not evil, not traitorous, not greedy, not naïve, not stupid. They are concerned -- totally concerned -- with the welfare of others. (otherism in French=altruism). The crazy Frenchman wrote:
The ultimate systematization of human life must consist above all in the development of otherism.
Man’s peaceful activity must become, not merely collective, but distinctly otheristic in character.
No matter what aspect of the ongoing destruction you are trying to prevent, this is one of the most important reasons why the crazy Frenchman is your chief adversary. Comte gave WORMS promoters a feeling of moral justification for the destruction of personality, and the destruction of nations that respect personality.
The WORMS desperately needed this feeling of justification, but they also needed something else -- a method. The crazy Frenchman also gave them that method. With just five words that he credited to Louis Napoleon, the simple plan of action was created.
TO DESTROY, YOU MUST REPLACE
Note: Communitarianism Interests of the community outweigh individual interests. Changing “Me” to “We”
Here is how it works:
To destroy Christianity he replaced it with the Great Being, the Goddess Humanity.
Note: Environmentalism replaces religion.To destroy theology he replaced it with sociology.Note: Secularization of morality.
To destroy Christian charity he replaced it with otherism.Note: Homeland Security FEMA
To destroy nations he suggested replacing states with cities and the tracts of country, which freely adhere to them.
Note: UN Treaties NAFTA, CAFTA, NAUTo destroy personal affection, he replaced it with love of all humanity.
Note: Politically correct – Racism, womans rights, gay rights, anti-semitism (special interest groups)To destroy personal knowledge he replaced it with control of public opinion and education.
Note: Media Perception Managers – Education Behavior modificationTo destroy Truth he replaced it with approval for censoring the achievements of all scientists who did not support evolution and Positive Philosophy.
Note: False science of enviromentalists - Global Warming Renewable energy
The crazy Frenchman’s followers learned their lessons well:
To destroy Christian missions they replaced them with the Peace Corps.To destroy Christian morality they replaced it with choose-your-own morality.To destroy the states they are replacing them with regional government.To destroy local control of education they replaced it with international sociological control by the United Nations.
To destroy government answerable to the people they are replacing it with government by political and social “scientists.”
To destroy independent businesses they are replacing them with government stimulus for international corporations approved by the International Chamber of Commerce.
To destroy government answerable to the people they are replacing it with government answerable to the United Nations.
Now you get the idea. We could go on and on. If you wish, please send me your additions to the ever-growing number of examples of TO DESTROY YOU MUST REPLACE.
The Hate Factory - a primer on the goals and methods of the crazy Frenchman's sociology and how it is used in schools to corrupt the children.
© 2009 Erica Carle - All Rights Reserved
E-mail This Page
Sign Up For Free E-Mail AlertsE-Mails are used strictly for NWVs alerts, not for sale
Erica Carle is an independent researcher and writer. She has a B.S. degree from the University of Wisconsin. She has been involved in radio and television writing and production, and has also taught math and composition at the private school her children attended in Brookfield, Wisconsin. For ten years she wrote a weekly column, "Truth In Education" for WISCONSIN REPORT, and served as Education Editor for that publication.
THE HATE FACTORY- Again available.
E-mail: ericacarle@sbcglobal.net
Energy Generation By Source 2006-08
Based on the DOE, Federal Energy Resource Center, Energy Generation By Source 2006-08: the amount of energy generated by solar and wind is approximately 1% of the total energy generated in this country. For the federal government and environmentalists to commit all our resources to increasing the energy generated from solar and wind is false science and a waste of resources. Nuclear energy is the most productive and has the least impact on the environment. New technology enables the plant to utilize the spent fuel rods for generation and the need to transport the rods to Yucca Mountain has been eliminated. Safety considerations have also been resolved. The costs per thousand kilowatt hour is about a third of the cost of solar and wind generation. We can provide India with the technology and $500 million to develop 25-30 nuclear plants, but environmentalists resist building plants in this country. Other countries realize the benefits of nuclear generation, and yet, the United States postpones or prohibits nuclear construction and advocates expansion of "clean energy". Wind and solar are sources of energy and should not be ignored, but science and economics should determine our priorities. It's time to do what's best for the people of this country and challenge the false science being advocated by the environmentalists.
Published on Feb 23, 2009 3:07:27 AM MST"
Published on Feb 23, 2009 3:07:27 AM MST"
Monday, February 9, 2009
History of New World Order
A CHRONOLOGICAL HISTORY OF THE NEW WORLD ORDER
by D.L. Cuddy, Ph.D. Arranged and Edited by John Loeffler
History New World Order
Published on February 9, 2009 9:38 AM
Presented on NWV by Dr. Cuddy
by D.L. Cuddy, Ph.D. Arranged and Edited by John Loeffler
History New World Order
Published on February 9, 2009 9:38 AM
Presented on NWV by Dr. Cuddy
Hedge Funds Withdrawals
February 9, 2009, 6:58 am — Updated: 6:58 am -->
Hedge Fund Lets Investors Withdraw What Is Left
Comment: I fail to see the difference between hedge funds and Madoff Ponzi Scheme. Fees and leveraging magnify the impact of a failed strategy. Losses are realized and investors can't get their money out.
In a move that could force similar changes at other money-losing hedge funds, the well-known fund manager William A. Ackman is cutting his fees and allowing investors to take what is left of their money from one of the funds he manages, The New York Times’s Zachary Kouwe reported.
Mr. Ackman, who runs Pershing Square Capital Management, is suffering huge losses on a fund he started nearly two years ago to bet solely on the rise of the stock of the discount retailer Target Corporation.
The fund, called Pershing Square IV, is down nearly 90 percent this year, and Mr. Ackman has been feeling pressure from investors who want to take their money out. In an effort to mollify those investors, Mr. Ackman apologized for the losses in a letter sent on Sunday. He personally committed $25 million to the fund to help pay investors.
“Bottom line, PSIV has been one of the greatest disappointments of my career to date,” Mr. Ackman said in the letter. “That said, we continue to believe that we will ultimately be successful in our investment in Target.”
Those who want to withdraw what is left of their capital from the fund will be paid in March, Mr. Ackman said. About 90 percent of the investors in the Target fund are also investors in Pershing’s other hedge funds, which were down 11 percent to 13 percent at the end of last year.
For those investors, Mr. Ackman has agreed to forgo any performance fees on the other funds until he makes up for the current losses in the Target fund, according to the letter. The concessions could spur other hedge fund managers to cut their fees and increase the amount that investors can withdraw. Hedge funds typically charge customers yearly fees of 2 percent of total assets managed plus 20 percent of any profits.
Several large hedge funds, including Citadel Investment Group and Farallon Capital Management, have halted investor redemptions in certain funds after having huge losses last year.
Mr. Ackman said in the letter that he was disappointed by the fund’s “dreadful performance,” adding, “I apologize profusely for the fund’s results to date.”
Go to Article from The New York Times »
Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company
Privacy Policy
NYTimes.com 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018
Hedge Fund Lets Investors Withdraw What Is Left
Comment: I fail to see the difference between hedge funds and Madoff Ponzi Scheme. Fees and leveraging magnify the impact of a failed strategy. Losses are realized and investors can't get their money out.
In a move that could force similar changes at other money-losing hedge funds, the well-known fund manager William A. Ackman is cutting his fees and allowing investors to take what is left of their money from one of the funds he manages, The New York Times’s Zachary Kouwe reported.
Mr. Ackman, who runs Pershing Square Capital Management, is suffering huge losses on a fund he started nearly two years ago to bet solely on the rise of the stock of the discount retailer Target Corporation.
The fund, called Pershing Square IV, is down nearly 90 percent this year, and Mr. Ackman has been feeling pressure from investors who want to take their money out. In an effort to mollify those investors, Mr. Ackman apologized for the losses in a letter sent on Sunday. He personally committed $25 million to the fund to help pay investors.
“Bottom line, PSIV has been one of the greatest disappointments of my career to date,” Mr. Ackman said in the letter. “That said, we continue to believe that we will ultimately be successful in our investment in Target.”
Those who want to withdraw what is left of their capital from the fund will be paid in March, Mr. Ackman said. About 90 percent of the investors in the Target fund are also investors in Pershing’s other hedge funds, which were down 11 percent to 13 percent at the end of last year.
For those investors, Mr. Ackman has agreed to forgo any performance fees on the other funds until he makes up for the current losses in the Target fund, according to the letter. The concessions could spur other hedge fund managers to cut their fees and increase the amount that investors can withdraw. Hedge funds typically charge customers yearly fees of 2 percent of total assets managed plus 20 percent of any profits.
Several large hedge funds, including Citadel Investment Group and Farallon Capital Management, have halted investor redemptions in certain funds after having huge losses last year.
Mr. Ackman said in the letter that he was disappointed by the fund’s “dreadful performance,” adding, “I apologize profusely for the fund’s results to date.”
Go to Article from The New York Times »
Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company
Privacy Policy
NYTimes.com 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018
Bond Investors Call Fed's Bluff
Monday, February 9, 2009
Naked Capitalism
Bond Investors Call Fed's Bluff
Even a casual market observer like your humble blogger has noticed the dramatic increase in Treasury bond yields from 2.5% on the 30 year bond to over 3.5% in a bit more than a month. I had assumed that the Fed, at its last FOMC meeting, would shed a bit of light on its December statement, when it said it would use all available means to free up credit markets and was considering buying Treasuries. The latter was particularly credible, since Bernanke has discussed the idea in some of his academic work.The long bond, which had fallen from its peak (remember lower prices mean higher yields) but stabilized and rallied a bit right before the January Fed meeting. Not only did the announcement fail to clarify how a Treasury program might work, but the language suggested an intent to focus on instruments other than Treasuries. This seems odd, for as long as the benchmark rate continues to rise, trying to control spreads over it can achieve only so much. Or maybe the truth has dawned on the Fed: the market is bigger than it is. Even so, it had better learn to bluff better, since Treasury investors, discouraged by the latest announcement, are demanding higher yields.Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph gives us a typically verging-on-apocalyptic but nevertheless informative piece, starting with the Fed and then looking at the pretty alarming data from other economies. However, since IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said last week that advanced economies are already in a depression, Evans-Pritchard in increasingly in line with consensus reality. That alone should get readers worried.From the Telegraph:
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds – the world's benchmark cost of capital – has jumped from 2pc to 3pc since Christmas despite efforts to talk the rate down.This level will asphyxiate the US economy if allowed to persist... The US is already in deflation. Core prices – stripping out energy – fell at an annual rate of 2pc in the fourth quarter. Wages are following. IBM, Chrysler, General Motors, and YRC, have all begun to cut pay.The "real" cost of capital is rising as the slump deepens. This is textbook debt deflation. It was not supposed to happen. The Bernanke doctrine assumes that the Fed can bring down the whole structure of interest costs, first by slashing the Fed Funds rate to zero, and then by making a "credible threat" to buy Treasuries outright with printed money.Mr Bernanke has been repeating this threat since early December. But talk is cheap. As the Fed hesitates, real yields climb ever higher. Plainly, the markets do not regard Fed rhetoric as "credible" at all.Who can blame bond vigilantes for going on strike? Nobody wants to be left holding the bag if and when the global monetary blitz succeeds in stoking inflation. Governments are borrowing frantically to fund their bail-outs and cover a collapse in tax revenue. The US Treasury alone needs to raise $2 trillion in 2009.Where is the money to come from? China, the Pacific tigers and the commodity powers are no longer amassing foreign reserves ($7.6 trillion). Their exports have collapsed. Instead of buying a trillion dollars of extra bonds each year, they have become net sellers. In aggregate, they dumped $190bn over the last fifteen weeks.The Fed has stepped into the breach, up to a point. It has bought $350bn of commercial paper, and begun to buy $600bn of mortgage bonds. That helps. But still it recoils from buying Treasuries, perhaps fearing that any move to "monetise" Washington's deficit starts a slippery slope towards an Argentine fate. Or perhaps Bernanke doesn't believe his own assurances that the Fed can extract itself easily from emergency policies when the cycle turns.As they dither, the world is falling apart. Events in Japan have turned deeply alarming. Exports fell 35pc in December. Industrial output fell 9.6pc. The economy is contracting at an annual rate of 12pc....The[ [Japanese central] bank is already targeting equities on the Tokyo bourse. That is not enough for restive politicians. One bloc led by Senator Koutaro Tamura wants to create $330bn in scrip currency for an industrial blitz. "We are facing hyper-deflation, so we need a policy to create hyper-inflation," he said.This has echoes of 1932, when the US Congress took charge of monetary policy..
.German orders fells 25pc year-on-year in December. French house prices collapsed 9.9pc in the fourth quarter, the steepest since data began in 1936....Spain's unemployment has jumped to 3.3m – or 14.4pc – and will hit 19pc next year, on Brussels data. The labour minister said yesterday that Spain's economy could not "tolerate" immigrants any longer after suffering "hurricane devastation". You can see where this is going.Ireland lost 36,500 jobs in January – equal to a monthly loss of 2.3m in the US. As the budget deficit surges to 12pc of GDP, Dublin is cutting wages, disguised as a pension levy. It has announced "Rooseveltian measures" to rescue the foundering companies...Meanwhile, Eastern Europe is imploding. Industrial output fell 27pc in Ukraine and 10pc in Russia in December. Latvia's GDP contracted at a 29pc annual rate in the fourth quarter. Polish homeowners have had the shock from Hell. Some 60pc of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has halved against the franc since July.Readers have berated me for a piece last week – "Glimmers of Hope" – that hinted at recovery. Let me stress, I was wearing my reporter's hat, not expressing an opinion. My own view, sadly, is that there is no hope at all of stabilizing the world economy on current policies.
Naked Capitalism
Bond Investors Call Fed's Bluff
Even a casual market observer like your humble blogger has noticed the dramatic increase in Treasury bond yields from 2.5% on the 30 year bond to over 3.5% in a bit more than a month. I had assumed that the Fed, at its last FOMC meeting, would shed a bit of light on its December statement, when it said it would use all available means to free up credit markets and was considering buying Treasuries. The latter was particularly credible, since Bernanke has discussed the idea in some of his academic work.The long bond, which had fallen from its peak (remember lower prices mean higher yields) but stabilized and rallied a bit right before the January Fed meeting. Not only did the announcement fail to clarify how a Treasury program might work, but the language suggested an intent to focus on instruments other than Treasuries. This seems odd, for as long as the benchmark rate continues to rise, trying to control spreads over it can achieve only so much. Or maybe the truth has dawned on the Fed: the market is bigger than it is. Even so, it had better learn to bluff better, since Treasury investors, discouraged by the latest announcement, are demanding higher yields.Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph gives us a typically verging-on-apocalyptic but nevertheless informative piece, starting with the Fed and then looking at the pretty alarming data from other economies. However, since IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said last week that advanced economies are already in a depression, Evans-Pritchard in increasingly in line with consensus reality. That alone should get readers worried.From the Telegraph:
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds – the world's benchmark cost of capital – has jumped from 2pc to 3pc since Christmas despite efforts to talk the rate down.This level will asphyxiate the US economy if allowed to persist... The US is already in deflation. Core prices – stripping out energy – fell at an annual rate of 2pc in the fourth quarter. Wages are following. IBM, Chrysler, General Motors, and YRC, have all begun to cut pay.The "real" cost of capital is rising as the slump deepens. This is textbook debt deflation. It was not supposed to happen. The Bernanke doctrine assumes that the Fed can bring down the whole structure of interest costs, first by slashing the Fed Funds rate to zero, and then by making a "credible threat" to buy Treasuries outright with printed money.Mr Bernanke has been repeating this threat since early December. But talk is cheap. As the Fed hesitates, real yields climb ever higher. Plainly, the markets do not regard Fed rhetoric as "credible" at all.Who can blame bond vigilantes for going on strike? Nobody wants to be left holding the bag if and when the global monetary blitz succeeds in stoking inflation. Governments are borrowing frantically to fund their bail-outs and cover a collapse in tax revenue. The US Treasury alone needs to raise $2 trillion in 2009.Where is the money to come from? China, the Pacific tigers and the commodity powers are no longer amassing foreign reserves ($7.6 trillion). Their exports have collapsed. Instead of buying a trillion dollars of extra bonds each year, they have become net sellers. In aggregate, they dumped $190bn over the last fifteen weeks.The Fed has stepped into the breach, up to a point. It has bought $350bn of commercial paper, and begun to buy $600bn of mortgage bonds. That helps. But still it recoils from buying Treasuries, perhaps fearing that any move to "monetise" Washington's deficit starts a slippery slope towards an Argentine fate. Or perhaps Bernanke doesn't believe his own assurances that the Fed can extract itself easily from emergency policies when the cycle turns.As they dither, the world is falling apart. Events in Japan have turned deeply alarming. Exports fell 35pc in December. Industrial output fell 9.6pc. The economy is contracting at an annual rate of 12pc....The[ [Japanese central] bank is already targeting equities on the Tokyo bourse. That is not enough for restive politicians. One bloc led by Senator Koutaro Tamura wants to create $330bn in scrip currency for an industrial blitz. "We are facing hyper-deflation, so we need a policy to create hyper-inflation," he said.This has echoes of 1932, when the US Congress took charge of monetary policy..
.German orders fells 25pc year-on-year in December. French house prices collapsed 9.9pc in the fourth quarter, the steepest since data began in 1936....Spain's unemployment has jumped to 3.3m – or 14.4pc – and will hit 19pc next year, on Brussels data. The labour minister said yesterday that Spain's economy could not "tolerate" immigrants any longer after suffering "hurricane devastation". You can see where this is going.Ireland lost 36,500 jobs in January – equal to a monthly loss of 2.3m in the US. As the budget deficit surges to 12pc of GDP, Dublin is cutting wages, disguised as a pension levy. It has announced "Rooseveltian measures" to rescue the foundering companies...Meanwhile, Eastern Europe is imploding. Industrial output fell 27pc in Ukraine and 10pc in Russia in December. Latvia's GDP contracted at a 29pc annual rate in the fourth quarter. Polish homeowners have had the shock from Hell. Some 60pc of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has halved against the franc since July.Readers have berated me for a piece last week – "Glimmers of Hope" – that hinted at recovery. Let me stress, I was wearing my reporter's hat, not expressing an opinion. My own view, sadly, is that there is no hope at all of stabilizing the world economy on current policies.
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